China And The United States Reached An Agreement in Economic Negotiations.

Short-term effects

On July 30, 2025, China and the United States reached an agreement to extend the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and Chinese countermeasures for 90 days (until November 12), while retaining the existing 10% base tariff. This provides a window for foreign trade companies, temporarily avoiding the risk of tariff increases for Chinese exports to the US. However, if no agreement is reached after 90 days, the US could reimpose 145% punitive tariffs, significantly increasing pressure on Chinese exports to the US.

Long-term challenges

If the negotiations fail, US tariffs on exports to China could rise back to over 54%, directly impacting China's import demand from the US and potentially disrupting cooperation in key areas such as rare earths and chips. China is currently addressing these challenges by adjusting its export structure, for example, increasing exports to markets such as the EU and ASEAN. In the first half of 2025, exports to the EU grew by 6.6%, while exports to ASEAN increased by $650 billion.

Structural opportunities

If the two sides reach an agreement, China will secure a stable export environment and promote supply chain cooperation in areas such as rare earths and chips. For example, after China adjusted its rare earth export strategy in June, there were fluctuations in the supply chains of the US military and new energy industries, indicating that there is room for complementary cooperation between the two sides in key areas.

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